Online streaming giant Netflix is one of the top internet stocks across the globe. Shares of the media company have soared 125% in 2015, 13% in 2016 and 55% in 2017. The stock is already up over 80% in 2017. Shares of Netflix peaked to an all-time high of $423.21 last month and have since declined after it released its Q2 2018 earnings results.
Why Did Netflix Shares Decline Recently?
Though Netflix beat earnings estimates, it reported Q2 revenue below analyst projections. Netflix also added 5.2 million new subscribers in the second quarter, below estimates of 6.2 million in Q2. In the United States alone, Netflix added 700,000 subscribers which were below the estimated figure of 1.2 million.
At the end of Q2, Netflix had 130 million subscribers, an increase of 25% year-over-year compared to 104 million subscribers at end of the second quarter in 2017.
Has User Growth For Netflix Started To Decline?
In the last seven out of the nine quarters, Netflix has been able to beat user forecasts. The last time Netflix reported user subscription below estimates was in Q1 2017 when it added 5 million users, compared to a forecast of 5.2 million. What’s more, Netflix expects to add 5 million subscribers in Q3 including 650,000 in the United States. This indicates an addition of 4.35 million global subscribers.
Netflix has stated that its subscriber base can grow between 60 million and 90 million in the United States, indicating an addition of approximately 30 million subscribers at the high end of its projection. After significant expansion, Netflix now has approximately 57 million domestic subscribers. With this comes the hiccup – it has practically no room to grow subscribers if we take the conservative estimate of 60 million subscribers.
The company is also facing challenges by bigger players with more cash in hand such as Amazon Prime and Amazon Studios. Further, Disney is looking to launch its streaming platform in 2019.
Key Drivers For Netflix
Yes, Netflix’s stock has been negatively impacted post Q2 results. But Netflix’s growth story is far from over. The company expects revenue to grow by 33.6% in Q3 with earnings growth of 134%. Netflix again expects to add 5 million subscribers in Q3.
Netflix can approximately double its subscriber base to 250 million over the next 10 years, given the total available market. Netflix currently has 300 million user profiles across 450 million devices.
There are growth opportunities in emerging markets like India where Netflix has about 5 million subscribers compared to the market leader Hotstar which has 75 million subscribers. The Indian online streaming market is estimated to grow by 35% year-over-year. Netflix has been targeting market share by generating original content.
The first two seasons of Narcos scored massive hits while Sacred Games has also been popular among the Indian audience. Production on the first Arabic series Jinn has reportedly begun. Netflix will be spending around $8 billion in original content for 2018.
Though there are concerns over Netflix, the company’s revenue is still estimated to grow by 35.6% in 2018, 24.8% in 2019 and 21.6% in 2020. Comparatively, its bottom line or earnings is estimated to grow by 116% in 2018, 61.9% in 2019 and at a CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of 62.5% over the next five years.
Does This Provide An Opportunity For Investors To Buy Netflix?
Although Netflix has generated spectacular returns over the last few years, potential investors might be wary about entering at current levels. However, the recent stock decline post Netflix’s quarterly results indicate that the stock is trading at a discount of over 10% to average analyst price targets of $377.60.
Out of the 40 analysts tracking Netflix, 60% of analysts (or 24 analysts) recommend a “buy” while 35% recommend a “hold” and only 5% recommend to “sell” the stock. Netflix has a high 12-month price target estimate of $503.
DATA: Are VC Investors Cutting Down On Checks?!
According to a recent survey, venture capitalists are worried there’s too much money moving around the private markets.
For Q3, the Silicon Valley Venture Capitalist Confidence Index—a quarterly University of San Francisco undertaking for the past 15 years—scored 3.58 on a 5 point scale (5 indicates high confidence, 1 low).
“But 3.58 is still high….ish…no?”
Well. Not really. You’ve gotta look at how it’s trending.
So how’s it trending?
This quarter’s index measurement dropped from Q2’s index reading of 3.76—and below the nearly 16-year average of 3.70.
That said, it’s better than Q4 of last year where investor confidence market the lowest index reading since Q1 of 2009, right around Recession time.
And with all the tech IPO activity this year—including BOTCHED ones like WeWork and not-so-good ones like Uber—investor confidence could be dipping even further. Especially with, what appears to be, IPO fatigue in the public markets.
And that may not play out well for valuations.
OK, so what’s the deal?
A couple of factors.
According to the researchers, investors are catching stank face over the—quote— “lofty valuations due to a continuing enormous supply of capital being made available to new ventures as more mega funds ($500M or more) are being established.”
ROUGHLY TRANSLATED: Mega investors—like WeWork sugar daddy SoftBank—are frustrated with poor returns.
So what are the VCs saying?
Well, the VCs chipped in with their two cents, in jargon, of course.
Menlo Ventures Partner Venky Ganesan says private markets have been fueled “by the availability of cheap capital and the surge of new entrants to private investing.”
AllegisCyber’s Bob Ackerman said something similarly jargon-y, adding there’s “too much capital chasing too much undifferentiated innovation with unrealistic return expectations.”
In other words: Too much money being thrown at ideas that aren’t new ideas but expect to be the next Facebook from standpoint of traction.
On one side of the spectrum, then you have guys like Kobe Bryant, whose $100M VC fund Bryant is straight CRUSHING IT, with 18 active deals and 10 exits.
Then there’s Trump…
Trading uncertainty is making people stay on the sidelines. Apparently, all the impeachment chatter isn’t helping either, according to the research.
USF’s Mark Cannice concluded his report—and brace yourself, there’s a whole heap of jargon coming—by saying this:
“With new sources and unprecedented amounts of capital being made available to new ventures” along with “evolving expectations of public markets for venture-backed firms in terms of paths to profitability, it could be argued that the venture industry is itself in the midst of a transformation.”
What the FUCK does that even mean?!
We’ll tell you what it means.
TRANSLATION: Venture capitalists are basically sick and tired of startups burning through cash without being profitable in the hope that a massive IPO will get said venture capitalists their 10x returns on the back of sucker public investors.
And said sucker public investors have caught on to the shiznit. In other, less pretentious words, the gig is up.
(See how we did that in three words vs. three lines? 🔥)
But that doesn’t mean there’s no money to be made…
There are entrepreneurs out there who raise capital scale, just like there are VCs who don’t just invest to cash out at IPO. Or you can always go catch an alley oop with Kobe and get straight back into the gains game. That’s always an option…
‘Till next time, #WealthGANG…
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Will Cloud Gaming Drive The Next Big Gaming Transition?
The global gaming industry has always been a disruptive one. Nuclear physicist Edward Condon developed the first computer game in 1941 called Nim, one which pretty much saw the computer win 90% of the time.
The disruption didn’t fizzle out. Soon afterwards, the first programming guidelines were written for a chess game developed by Claude Shannon, while a decade later the US Department of Defense created a war game — STAGE.
This really set the stage for what was to come later — video games. American investor Ralph Baer wasted no time and conceived the idea of playing video games on TV, and the world’s first gaming console was released. The rapid evolution of gaming consoles coupled with gaming design and the introduction of graphics cards have taken the global gaming industry by storm.
In the last decade, the evolution of smartphones opened up a totally new segment known as digital gaming. In 2016, Activision Blizzard paid close to $6B to acquire King Digital- a digital gaming behemoth. Not one to trail far behind, the eSports segment, despite its nascency, proved to be a long-term revenue driver for top gaming firms.
Will cloud gaming be the next key driver in global games?
Now companies such as Microsoft [MSFT], Google [GOOG] and Electronic Arts [EA] aim to create a market for cloud gaming. So what exactly is cloud gaming? It’s similar to online streaming services such as Netflix [NFLX] and Amazon Prime [AMZN], but with games.
Cloud gaming will allow users to play games on their computer or mobile devices. A remote server will send players video feed and receive controller inputs. This now means that players no longer need to purchase gaming consoled to play the latest games. All you need is a stable internet connection.
Google’s cloud gaming project is called Project Stream and the company launched a beta test last month. Players required a Google Chrome browser and an internet connection of 25 Mbps or higher.
Microsoft which also manufactures the Xbox consoles announced its cloud gaming platform known as Project xCloud. It has confirmed several Xbox games for beta testing such as Halo, Minecraft, and Gears of War.
The tech giant is hoping for growing interest in cloud gaming to offset any declining sales in gaming consoles.
Following Google and Microsoft, top gaming publisher Electronic Arts has forayed into this space, with a project known as Project Atlas.
Will this move garner global attention?
The shift to cloud gaming is going to be as disruptive as any in the gaming space. Players can now subscribe and stream games online instead of spending over $300 for the latest gaming console. The cloud gaming space is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 26% between 2017 and 2023.
While Netflix and Amazon have changed the consumption of entertainment via cord cutting, it is very likely that cloud gaming will soon be a hit among players in a few years time. Is this the end of the gaming console?
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