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Is Netflix A Buy? Analysts Continue To Remain Optimistic

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Online streaming giant Netflix is one of the top internet stocks across the globe. Shares of the media company have soared 125% in 2015, 13% in 2016 and 55% in 2017. The stock is already up over 80% in 2017. Shares of Netflix peaked to an all-time high of $423.21 last month and have since declined after it released its Q2 2018 earnings results.

Why Did Netflix Shares Decline Recently?

Though Netflix beat earnings estimates, it reported Q2 revenue below analyst projections. Netflix also added 5.2 million new subscribers in the second quarter, below estimates of 6.2 million in Q2. In the United States alone, Netflix added 700,000 subscribers which were below the estimated figure of 1.2 million.

At the end of Q2, Netflix had 130 million subscribers, an increase of 25% year-over-year compared to 104 million subscribers at end of the second quarter in 2017.

Has User Growth For Netflix Started To Decline?

In the last seven out of the nine quarters, Netflix has been able to beat user forecasts. The last time Netflix reported user subscription below estimates was in Q1 2017 when it added 5 million users, compared to a forecast of 5.2 million. What’s more, Netflix expects to add 5 million subscribers in Q3 including 650,000 in the United States. This indicates an addition of 4.35 million global subscribers.

Netflix has stated that its subscriber base can grow between 60 million and 90 million in the United States, indicating an addition of approximately 30 million subscribers at the high end of its projection. After significant expansion, Netflix now has approximately 57 million domestic subscribers. With this comes the hiccup – it has practically no room to grow subscribers if we take the conservative estimate of 60 million subscribers.

The company is also facing challenges by bigger players with more cash in hand such as Amazon Prime and Amazon Studios. Further, Disney is looking to launch its streaming platform in 2019.

Key Drivers For Netflix

Yes, Netflix’s stock has been negatively impacted post Q2 results. But Netflix’s growth story is far from over. The company expects revenue to grow by 33.6% in Q3 with earnings growth of 134%. Netflix again expects to add 5 million subscribers in Q3.

Netflix can approximately double its subscriber base to 250 million over the next 10 years, given the total available market. Netflix currently has 300 million user profiles across 450 million devices.

There are growth opportunities in emerging markets like India where Netflix has about 5 million subscribers compared to the market leader Hotstar which has 75 million subscribers. The Indian online streaming market is estimated to grow by 35% year-over-year. Netflix has been targeting market share by generating original content.

The first two seasons of Narcos scored massive hits while Sacred Games has also been popular among the Indian audience. Production on the first Arabic series Jinn has reportedly begun. Netflix will be spending around $8 billion in original content for 2018.

Though there are concerns over Netflix, the company’s revenue is still estimated to grow by 35.6% in 2018, 24.8% in 2019 and 21.6% in 2020. Comparatively, its bottom line or earnings is estimated to grow by 116% in 2018, 61.9% in 2019 and at a CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of 62.5% over the next five years.

Does This Provide An Opportunity For Investors To Buy Netflix?

Although Netflix has generated spectacular returns over the last few years, potential investors might be wary about entering at current levels. However, the recent stock decline post Netflix’s quarterly results indicate that the stock is trading at a discount of over 10% to average analyst price targets of $377.60.

Out of the 40 analysts tracking Netflix, 60% of analysts (or 24 analysts) recommend a “buy” while 35% recommend a “hold” and only 5% recommend to “sell” the stock. Netflix has a high 12-month price target estimate of $503.

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Will Cloud Gaming Drive The Next Big Gaming Transition?

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The global gaming industry has always been a disruptive one. Nuclear physicist Edward Condon developed the first computer game in 1941 called Nim, one which pretty much saw the computer win 90% of the time.

The disruption didn’t fizzle out. Soon afterwards, the first programming guidelines were written for a chess game developed by Claude Shannon, while a decade later the US Department of Defense created a war game — STAGE.

This really set the stage for what was to come later video games. American investor Ralph Baer wasted no time and conceived the idea of playing video games on TV, and the world’s first gaming console was released. The rapid evolution of gaming consoles coupled with gaming design and the introduction of graphics cards have taken the global gaming industry by storm.

In the last decade, the evolution of smartphones opened up a totally new segment known as digital gaming. In 2016,  Activision Blizzard paid close to $6B to acquire King Digital- a digital gaming behemoth. Not one to trail far behind, the eSports segment, despite its nascency, proved to be a long-term revenue driver for top gaming firms.

Will cloud gaming be the next key driver in global games?

Now companies such as Microsoft [MSFT], Google [GOOG] and Electronic Arts [EA] aim to create a market for cloud gaming. So what exactly is cloud gaming? It’s similar to online streaming services such as Netflix [NFLX] and Amazon Prime [AMZN], but with games.

Cloud gaming will allow users to play games on their computer or mobile devices. A remote server will send players video feed and receive controller inputs. This now means that players no longer need to purchase gaming consoled to play the latest games. All you need is a stable internet connection.

Google’s cloud gaming project is called Project Stream and the company launched a beta test last month. Players required a Google Chrome browser and an internet connection of 25 Mbps or higher.

Microsoft which also manufactures the Xbox consoles announced its cloud gaming platform known as Project xCloud. It has confirmed several Xbox games for beta testing such as Halo, Minecraft, and Gears of War.

The tech giant is hoping for growing interest in cloud gaming to offset any declining sales in gaming consoles.

Following Google and Microsoft, top gaming publisher Electronic Arts has forayed into this space, with a project known as Project Atlas.

Will this move garner global attention?

The shift to cloud gaming is going to be as disruptive as any in the gaming space. Players can now subscribe and stream games online instead of spending over $300 for the latest gaming console. The cloud gaming space is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 26% between 2017 and 2023.

While Netflix and Amazon have changed the consumption of entertainment via cord cutting, it is very likely that cloud gaming will soon be a hit among players in a few years time. Is this the end of the gaming console?

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10 Stock Terms Every Newbie Investor Should Know

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Investing in the financial markets can seem quite tricky. There are far too many stories where people tried to play the stock market without much success. When the markets are on a roll, everyone wants a piece of the pie.

Here are 10 terms every investor cannot afford to miss.

1. Market Cap

The market capitalization of a stock is simply the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the share price of the company. Companies are generally differentiated on the basis of market cap.

Small cap companies generally have a market cap of between $300M and $2B, while mid-caps are between $2B and $10B. Any company with a market cap over $10B is considered a large-cap. While small-cap and mid-cap stocks have historically outperformed large caps, they are also way riskier.

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Being A Millionaire: What Does It Actually Mean?

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You’re dreaming about luxury vacations and nice cars. OH, you can’t wait to be a millionaire.

But I’m here to tell you to think again.

While having more money is never a bad thing, what you’ve probably envisioned and what the reality is don’t match up. Let me explain.

What is the Definition of a Millionaire?

By definition, a millionaire is a person or family who has a net worth in excess of $1 million dollars. This answer is very U.S. centric as different countries have their own versions of this answer. For example, it takes 117 Japanese Yen to make 1 USD, so $1 million Yen doesn’t get you very far!

Even though in the U.S. the concept of a millionaire is static, what those million dollars gets you over time can change dramatically.

Inflation

An example of that is the effect of inflation. A million dollars in 1950 is worth about $10.5 million in today’s dollars. But, the definition of a “millionaire” didn’t change. So, Today’s millionaires have 1/10 the amount of money that millionaires had when your parents were born.

So, the idea of “millionaire” status is really less meaningful than it was decades ago.

Just the rate of inflation will create more “millionaires” every year.

Exchange Rates

Another thing that messes with the definition of a millionaire is the fluctuation of exchange rates and purchasing power.

Let’s go back to the example above with Japan. We know that 1 US Dollar can get 117 Japanese Yen. We know that $1 can get you a chicken sandwich at a fast food restaurant. If you can go to Japan and get a similar sandwich for ¥ 117 then your purchasing power hasn’t changed.

The reason why I bring this up is to show that having a million dollars may be worth a lot in one place in the world but not worth much elsewhere depending on purchasing power.

How Many Millionaires in the U.S.?

in 2017, there were roughly 11 million US households with a net worth over $1 million or around 15 million individuals.

There are roughly 325 million people in the U.S. which means that around 4.6% of the US population are millionaires. In other words, around 1 in 20 people are millionaires.

Doesn’t sound like it’s rare, does it?

When you go to the mall, a huge number of cars in that parking lot are owned by millionaires.

In your child’s classroom, chances are one of those children were born to a millionaire family.

Chances are, one of your friends or family members is a millionaire and you don’t even know it.

But, if so many people are millionaires, where are all the Lambos and mansions?

It’s Not What You Think

Net Worth is not cash in the bank. You can’t spend $1m when it’s coming from the value of your home or 401k. Even if it was cash in the bank, it’s not even a lot of money.

$1m doesn’t get very far. You can buy a decent house with it but that comes with expensive maintenance, lawn care, repairs, and a crap ton of new furniture to fill up 5x more space than you’re used to having.

It can get a foreign sports car, but that comes along with $500 oil changes and $1,000 for a new tire (remember, you need 4).

$1,000,000 invested conservatively could earn you around $40,000-$50,000 per year in interested. That’s hardly enough to retire on especially as old age comes with added costs of health care.

But, if most of that $1m is in your home, which is true for most people, it’s not earning any interested. Even if it was, you’d have to sell your home to get that money. Then what?

Don’t Focus on Becoming a Millionaire

Of course, anyone would rather have $1m than not have it. But, don’t make it your focus. Having it isn’t going to get your cars or vacations. Net worth is one thing to measure, but it’s more important to focus on cash flow.

Yearly passive income will buy you anything you want. It’s money you can spend. It’s cash in the bank. Net worth is money locked up somewhere. You need assets, but assets don’t buy you things. If that asset doesn’t produce cash flow, you can only use it by selling it and that’s not a good place to be.

What’s more important is focusing on building up passive sources of income from real estate, side businesses, stocks, or other ventures.

Focus on building up $40k or $100k in passive income rather than focusing on having $1m in net worth.

This article originally appeared on IdealREI. Follow them on FacebookInstagram and Twitter.

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