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Another Stock Market Crash Looming Ahead?

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Unless you have been on a deserted island with no form of communication, you would know that there is a lot of scare mongering around the possibility of another stock market crash.

Some people call it “terrible October” while others refer to it as “red October”, but any way you look at it, Oct. 2018 has continued to live up to its reputation as one of the most volatile months in the stock market.

Oct. has had a long reputation of being a down month in the market given that previous significant crashes have occurred in this month including the great crash of 1929 (black Tuesday) and black Monday in 1987.

To this day, we continue to be reminded of these crashes, which is why people are so wary when Oct. rolls around. But should we be concerned or is the current bearishness just the market being normal?

So far Oct. has produced a new all-time high on the Dow with the S&P having an all-time high in Sept. Charles Dow, founder of the Dow Jones Index, said that for crashes to occur we need to see rampant speculation in the market with hordes of inexperienced investors jumping into anything that is moving at increasingly higher rates.

We also need to see record levels of borrowing to invest and investors moving into mutual funds.

Whilst consumer debt is up, I believe it is more a sign of a good economy and not rampant speculation from individuals borrowing to get into the stock market or to invest in mutual funds.

If we consider the new inflows into mutual funds, the levels have decreased over the past couple of years.

Looking at the market from a technical perspective, we have more than 200 years of market data that proves the stock market has cycles of 80 to 90 years, with the last major cycle low occurring in March 2008, which is also known as the GFC low.

Prior to this, the major lows occurred in 1932 (the 1929 crash), 1842 and 1762. Out of the 1932 low, where the Dow had fallen 90 percent in price between 1929 and 1932, the Dow rose for 56 months and 382 percent in price before falling 50 percent into a low in March 1938.

During this time, we first experienced a depression and then the 1937 recession, which caused the fall into the low in 1938. The next major fall for the Dow did not occur until the 1970’s, where it fell just over 30 percent.

The move out of the 90 year low that occurred in 2008 has been quite different to the move up from the 1932 low in that we have seen the market rise 115 months and 316 percent, so the rise has been steadier rather than the euphoria experienced in 1932.

We have also not seen a depression, and a short-lived recessionary environment. Once the dust settled after the GFC, the economy started improving to now being strong and indicating that a continued rise in the market is likely sustainable.

Given that we are a mere ten years on from the last 90 year low and the next one is not due until the end of this century, right now I believe we are seeing a normal market adjustment to the current longer-term bull market.

Therefore, my expectation is that any fall on the Dow will be in the vicinity of 15 to 25 percent from its all-time high with support between 22,000 and 21,000 points.

We also need to be cognizant of the fact that for a market to crash to occur we need to see fear and panic, which is fueled by widespread concerns over leveraging by consumers and as previously mentioned, we have not seen this in the stock market, but what about leveraging in the housing market, which was the major cause of the GFC.

While there is some justification for concern in the housing market, it is more around availability given that not enough new housing is being built to handle the growth in the population.

Most of you will remember all the talk in 2007 was about dubious mortgages and lending practices and at the time interest rates were over 3.5 per cent, well above today’s level of 2.25 percent. So, in summary we are not seeing large scale stress in lending for housing.

I have often said that if the majority are suggesting that a crash is imminent, then the market will not crash.

This is because those who are likely to panic would have already sold out and the big end of town would have battened down the hatches and adjusted their portfolios.

The process of protecting portfolios from downside risk has the effect of slowing the market as the re-weighting of portfolios occur, and while over the past weeks we could say there has been signs of this, it has not been widespread over many months, which indicates that the big end of town are not too worried.

Investors are known for following the herd and making reactive decisions, rather than being proactive, and it is well known that the herd get it wrong most of the time when it need not be the case.

Money

Airbnb Experiences: 5 Easy Ways To Make Extra Cash Today

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Airbnb Experiences: 5 Easy Ways To Make Extra Cash Today

Airbnb is a great way to earn money by renting out your home or apartment.

However, did you know that you can also make money by offering experiences on Airbnb? Here are five easy ways to make extra cash today by creating and offering Airbnb experiences.

1. Offer a food tour

If you love food, why not share your passion with others? Create a food tour experience in your city, showcasing the best local cuisine. You can offer a walking tour or a bike tour, and include stops at local markets, restaurants, and cafes. This is a great way to meet new people and earn money at the same time.

2. Teach a skill or hobby

Do you have a skill or hobby that you’re passionate about? Share your knowledge with others by offering an experience on Airbnb. You can teach anything from photography to cooking to yoga. People are always looking for new experiences, and they’re willing to pay for them.

3. Host a cultural event

If you come from a different culture, why not share it with others? Host a cultural event, such as a traditional dance, music, or art class. This is a great way to showcase your culture and make some extra cash.

4. Offer a nature experience

If you live in a beautiful area, offer a nature experience on Airbnb. You can offer a hiking tour, a kayaking trip, or a birdwatching tour. People love to get out into nature, and they’re willing to pay for it.

5. Host a wellness retreat

If you’re passionate about wellness, why not host a retreat? You can offer yoga classes, meditation sessions, and healthy meals. This is a great way to help people relax and recharge, while earning some extra cash.

In conclusion, offering experiences on Airbnb is a great way to make some extra cash. With these five easy ideas, you can get started today.

For more ideas and tips on how to make money, check out this Airbnb guide inside our academy.

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Money

10 Tips for Making More Money with Your Airbnb Listing

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If you’re an Airbnb host looking to increase your revenue, there are several strategies you can implement to make your listing more appealing to potential guests.

Here are 10 tips for making more money with your Airbnb listing:

  1. Set competitive pricing: Research the prices of similar listings in your area to ensure you’re offering a competitive rate. Consider lowering your prices during slow seasons or offering discounts for longer stays.
  2. Offer extra amenities: Providing extra amenities, such as a pool, hot tub, or complimentary breakfast, can make your listing more attractive to guests and justify a higher price.
  3. Invest in high-quality photos: High-quality photos of your space can make a big difference in how many bookings you receive. Consider hiring a professional photographer to capture the best aspects of your listing.
  4. Keep your listing up to date: Make sure your listing accurately reflects the current state of your property. Update your photos, descriptions, and amenities regularly to keep your listing relevant and appealing.
  5. Respond promptly to inquiries: Quick responses to guest inquiries can lead to more bookings and positive reviews. Make sure to check your messages frequently and respond as soon as possible.
  6. Provide excellent customer service: Going above and beyond for your guests can lead to positive reviews and repeat bookings. Make sure to communicate clearly and address any issues promptly.
  7. Offer local recommendations: Providing guests with recommendations for local restaurants, attractions, and activities can enhance their experience and justify a higher price for your listing.
  8. Allow instant bookings: Allowing guests to book instantly can make your listing more appealing to those who need to book at the last minute. However, make sure to set clear guidelines for instant bookings to avoid any issues.
  9. Offer discounts for repeat guests: Offering discounts to guests who have stayed with you in the past can encourage repeat bookings and increase your revenue over time.
  10. Keep your space clean and well-maintained: A clean and well-maintained space can lead to positive reviews and repeat bookings. Make sure to keep your space clean and address any maintenance issues promptly.

Implementing these 10 tips can help you make more money with your Airbnb listing and improve your overall hosting experience. Happy hosting!

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How Big Real Estate Moguls Avoid Taxes (And How You Can, Too) 👀

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I was looking around Google for an old article on tax strategies and this five-year old video of myself happened to pop up.

I’m interviewing a tax expert about how real estate investors avoid paying taxes in perpetuity—AND how everyday citizens can do the same thing.

(Real estate—our TEMPLE I and TEMPLE II projects included—has a number of tax benefits savvy investors have capitalized on for years, including Opportunity Zone breaks and 10-year tax abatements.)

There’s the 1031 exchange, of course, which I’ve shared with you guys before. 

Just to refresh your memory, the 1031 Exchange allows you to roll over gains from your last project into a new property TAX FREE—as long as said property is worth the same or more.

But there’s ANOTHER TAX LOOPHOLE that can take your portfolio to an entirely new level by splitting your capital gains into MULTIPLE properties.

So I thought I’d share it with you guys. 💎

You can check it out here.

Let me know what you think. 😎

PS: In our next update, I’m going to break down how real estate moguls get paid from their properties…tax free. 👀
PPS: If you want to learn how to implement generational wealth strategies like this one, you can join our NYCE wealth academy (TRIBE U) here.

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