WINNER: SITE Centers Corp.
Shares of SITE Centers Corp. [SITC] rose 10.2% last week, soon after the REIT announced a $100M stock repurchase plan. It also announced a common stock dividend of $0.20 per share for the fourth quarter.
Last Week Gain: 10.2%
Market Cap: $2.3B
Dividend Yield: 7.1%
Real Estate: Is It In A Bubble?
I originally wrote this article 6 months ago but the same question applies so I’m updating and improving it. The question still applies, is real estate at a bubble? Is it at the top?
I was at the bar for a friend’s going away party and a random guy at the bar started telling me how I needed to buy some new coin. Not Bitcoin, he said, but some other coin he had discovered that is going to make you rich.
In fact, he had just quintupled his money since this morning. I needed to hurry up and get in on the action!
…When the local regular at a small bar in small-town USA has finally started giving investing advice, it’s time to move on to the next big thing. So, I’m done with cryptocurrency (until it collapses).
Mind you, I wrote those words back when Bitcoin was was reaching new highs every day (it’s since lost 90% of it’s value)
But, What About Real Estate?
Ten years ago when I got started in real estate, everyone thought it was a terrible idea.
“If it was so easy everyone would do it.”
“Don’t you think real estate is too risky?”
You know the lines. I heard them all. But now, real estate is the best investment on the planet.
A huge number of friends and also former co-workers of mine have jumped into real estate investing within the last year. People who used to warn me how dangerous real estate was are now telling me real estate is probably the best thing to get into (except cryptos, of course!).
It’s the “best” because their best friend’s, uncle’s, nanny just house-hacked a home and earned $50k and quit being a nanny and is now a full-time house flipper!
Or…someone they knew bought a house 3 months ago and already sold it for $20k profit!
Maybe…their friend’s nephew just became a landlord though he’s 19 and doesn’t really even have a stable job (so he’s technically “retired”, right?).
The Vibe in Real Estate
If you’re getting this feeling or this vibe with any sort of investment, you need to be very cautious. Every time I’ve seen it, it’s been bad.
I turned 18 in 2003. Though I was young, I remember the boom years – I was 16 and everyone was offering me part time work at $10-$12 per hour to do construction work that I had no idea how to do.
When I was 18, 19, and 20, I was remodeling apartments at $10-$15 per hour though I had basically no experience.
Everyone was making money and throwing it around. Then I graduated college in 2008 and the economy collapsed.
It was the same feeling with cryptos. Everyone was excited about them, now I never hear about them anymore.
…and now, everyone I know has become real estate investors.
Real Estate & Economic Fundamentals
When your gut tells you something, you need to pay attention. But, I question myself at the same time.
Housing inventory is chronically low which is forcing housing prices to go up. House construction simply can’t keep pace with demand and the same is true with apartment developments.
Interest rates are dampening demand. If interest rates continue to rise, it could affect the entire economy, but the Fed has signaled it might slow or stop their interest rate increases.
The economy is great, unemployment is rock bottom, real estate prices are increasing. New wealth has been created by the trillions in the last year or two.
Stocks are going through a correction, but stock prices are not an economic indicator. If they get too low it can change people’s perceptions of the economy though and reduce spending. So, we need to pay attention to it.
Wages are growing faster than inflation for the first time in decades.
But, cap rates are amazingly low and property prices are ridiculously high compared to the income being produced. This means people prefer real estate over other investments.
Economists are constantly revising up their estimates for growth.
But… the yield curve inverted, at least on part of the curve, which usually signals an upcoming recession within 1-2 years.
So, which is it? Is real estate at the top or are economic indicators showing strong fundamentals?
Is it Rational or Irrational Exuberance?
Well, my crystal ball is as clear as yours. No one can predict the future but here’s my take.
I don’t feel that all signs point to bubble yet because there is enough conflicting thoughts to make me believe we aren’t quite there yet. Real estate is cooling down, but a lot of that is due to interest rates. If they don’t continue to rise, then real estate should be more stable or continue to rise.
For now, though, all we can do is to plan and to prepare. Here are your options.
Joining The Herd.
Most people invest a lot and take risks when times are great, but pull way back when times are bad. They dump $50k into stocks then when they drop 20%, they immediately sell to protect them from further losses.
Then once stocks have dropped 40%, they are too scared to reinvest until stocks are back up or higher than where they were before.
People jump into bitcoin when it’s 15,000, ride it to 17,000, then dump it when it gets to 10,000.
This is the herd mentality and is the absolute wrong way to invest.
Back in 2007, they were giving loans to anyone with a pulse but by 2011 it was basically impossible to get financing, even though housing was at rock bottom prices.
When properties could be bought for literally 40 cents on the dollar, nobody was lending and nobody was buying.
Bucking The Herd…
The hardest part of doing the opposite thing is you’ll have some serious FOMO (fear of missing out).
I know people who have made $200k+ in cryptos. FOMO was taking hold of me and I almost I actually invested $1,000 into bitcoin right around $15,500. I played with it for a week or two and sold it, losing roughly $3. That is not a typo.
I did it for fun because investing due to FOMO is the absolute worst reason to invest. A lot of people put a ton of money into it right at the wrong moment.
Instead, I believe people should invest when times are great and invest way more when times are bad. Also, I only want to invest in well known and historically good investments. In a way, it’s like dollar cost averaging.
Using the above example, if the market is hot, I wouldn’t dump all $50k into the market. Instead, I might dump $20k and leave $30k cash. As the market drops, I keep buying more. If it goes up, I buy more too, just more slowly.
In fact, this is almost exactly what I did during the market crash after Lehman Brothers collapsed. I invested my life savings in the beginning of september 2009 and lost half 2 weeks later.
I was somehow able to make all my money back within about 6 months because of dollar cost averaging.
Dollar Cost Averaging Works in Real Estate
The fact is that nobody knows when we will be at the top and nobody knows how hard the market will correct when we get there. It could come in 3 years or it could come tomorrow.
3 years ago I knew a person who sold a lot of their multifamily because they said we are at the top. 3 years later they lost out on a ton of money because it’s still going strong.
So, if you held back your investments today, you could lose 3 more years of a bull market.
My point is, I wouldn’t avoid buying. Just buy a deal or two, buy them right, and focus on adding serious value to keep you above water when the market corrects.
During a correction, use your capital reserves to really get in and buy as many properties as possible with as little money as possible. Don’t focus on adding a lot of value, just focus on getting them cash flowing.
Adding value means typing up capital. Tying up capital means buying fewer properties for huge discounts.
So, save those improvements for when the market is hot and deals are hard to find.
How Are You Planning to Invest in the Next Few Years?
Are you following the herd and diving in, or are you bucking the herd and doing the opposite.
4 Real Estate ETFs That Pay 4-8% In Dividends
When it comes to investment choices, the hardest part seems to be choosing which options to actually, well, choose. You’ve got to gauge how much of risk you can take on, and what your investment horizon looks like.
Today, we’ll take a look at an option that allows you to diversify your portfolio while adding a bedrock of stability.
Enter the REITs! (Dramatic sound effects…)
What’s a REIT?!
REITs—aka real estate stocks—are ideal targets for investors who want a steady stream of income. By IRS law, REITs are required to pay out 90% of its earnings in dividends—great for the income investor.
Although there are various REITs (pronounced “reet”), the variety might confuse a regular investor. Here’s where investing in REIT ETFs (exchange-traded funds) can almost save a passive investor.
The REIT ETF…
An ETF is a pooled investment vehicle and offers diversified exposure to investors across asset classes. Investors can buy ETF shares that represent a proportional interest in the pooled assets.
Here are four REIT ETFs with a dividend yield of 4-8%.
1. PowerShares KBW Premium Yield Equity REIT Portfolio [KBWY]
REITs have historically been a high-yielding asset class compared to standard stocks on the Standard & Poor. KBWY capitalize on this by targeting REITs with high dividends, allowing this ETF to pay out a generous 7.2% a year.
Market cap: $252.86 M
Expense ratio: 0.35% ($35 for every $10,000 invested)
Not A Citizen? Here’s How to Invest In US Real Estate.
Everyone wants to buy US real estate because of the regulatory environment, stability, and economic growth. But, many people pass it over.
The number 1 reason people don’t invest in real estate is the perceived risk of it. That could come from a number of factors, but often it’s because you don’t live geographically near the property you want to buy.
Another reason might be that you aren’t a citizen of the country you want to make the purchase in. This is incredibly common for people who want to invest in the US but live abroad or are citizens of other countries.
Sure, it sounds like a great idea, but how are you going to buy and manage something on the other side of the planet in a country you don’t really know?
But, did you know that it’s not hard to invest in US real estate even if you live abroad and are a citizen of another country?
Sure, there are some considerations you have to make and hoops to jump through, but it’s totally doable.
Why US Real Estate?
Once you’ve decided to invest in another country, you need to ask “why invest in US real estate” and not somewhere else. As a real estate investor you don’t want to limit your options.
Well, recently the US real estate sector has separated itself from other sectors in the US as well as from real estate in other countries.
The financial crisis is in the rear view mirror and the US economy is fueled by strong business and job growth. The US has a very stable real estate market and mature capital markets which compare positively to other countries.
Europe, being its most comparable area, has been embroiled in one economic crisis after another from Greece to Italy to Spain. Brexit, and strain on the welfare state from migration are just the most recent which can seen with widespread protests in France.
From a more micro perspective, US real estate has a lot of mature cities that have a lower cost than in many international cities such as London or Tokyo. While the US does have very expensive markets such as Los Angeles or New York City, there are a lot of core markets that offer good returns at a lower price point.
Additionally, the U.S. market is more liquid than other markets around the world and much more massive. So, it’s comparatively easy to sell and reinvest your capital somewhere else should your personal situation change or should economic conditions dictate your need to sell.
While there are a lot of great reasons to invest in the US, there are a lot of hurdles as well.
Hurdles You’ll Face as a Foreign Buyer of US Real Estate
It easiest for U.S. Citizens and permanent residents to purchase US real estate. Foreigners have a more difficult time and have more hurdles to overcome. So, let’s talk about all the drawbacks you will face as a foreign buyer of US real estate.
No Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
In the residential real estate market (1-4 units), Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are the king of the home loan. Basically, they guarantee or purchase the majority of home loans so when they set standards, most banks and lenders follow suit. Unfortunately, they do not purchase loans from non-US citizens.
So, these are not an option for foreign buyers. You’ll have to focus on finding lenders that keep the loans on their own books and don’t sell them to Fannie or Freddie.
The problem for banks is that these loans are harder to sell on the secondary market. Foreigner buyers have a higher risk of default and it’s more difficult to collect unpaid balances if they live overseas. So, you will have a harder time qualifying and pay higher interest and fees to offset the risk they face.
Mortgages to Foreign Buyers Have Higher Interest
There are plenty of banks that will lend to a foreign national who lives outside of the United States, but they have to create loans that don’t conform with Fannie or Freddie guidelines and have to keep them on their own books.
So, they charge higher interest and higher processing fees.
They will also require a larger down payment to give them some more room in the chance that you default. Often they will require 30% or more as the down payment.
Generally, a bank looks at your income, your expenses, and your credit history to determine if you are qualified for a loan. For foreign buyers, it’s a lot more difficult for them to verify these things.
So, they will ask for a lot more documentation than they would ask of an American real estate buyer. This may include tax returns, bank statements, and any credit history available in your home country. They may require several months worth of bank statements, credit statements, and a huge variety of other documents, all of which is just to make them feel more comfortable extending a mortgage to you.
Because of all this extra underwriting, it will take longer for your loan to go through and finish processing.
To speed this up, you might want to apply for a loan at a bank in your home country that also does business or has a presence in the US. The bank will be able to verify your information more easily, but also extend credit in the US.
Fannie Accepts Green Cards or Work Visas
Fannie backed loans or FHA accept work visas. So, if you happen to be in the US, even for a short period of time, you may be able to qualify for one of these.
There may be some additional documentation requirements, but having FHA or Fannie backed loans will open a lot of doors, lower your cost and down payment requirements.
How to Invest in U.S. Real Estate
We’ve covered all the reasons to invest in the US and also all the difficulties you’ll face when trying to get a loan. Now it’s time to cover some basic information to help you get started as a foreign real estate investor buying US real estate.
The first thing to consider is what niche in real estate you want to get into.
Residential vs Commercial Real Estate
For some reason, residential real estate is considered any building with 4 or fewer living units in it. It is not exclusive to single family homes or condos which is great for investors if you want to get into small multifamily!
5 units and above multifamily is considered commercial, even though it’s residential living space. Also, all commercial office space, retail, etc is considered commercial real estate. This includes single occupancy buildings such a standalone pharmacy or restaurant.
The biggest difference to know about is how the price of real estate is determined. Residential real estate is based entirely on comparable sales and you can estimate the price based on a comparative market analysis. Conversely, commercial property is based entirely on the net operating income and capitalization rates in that market.
For residential property, to improve the value you need to improve the condition as compared to other similar properties in the area.
For commercial real estate, to increase the value you need to increase the income or lower the operating expenses.
It’s important to understand the difference between the two before choosing a niche. Each has it’s pros and cons and I invest in both types of real estate. But, you need a different approach depending on the type of real estate you choose.
Creating an Entity
Before you start shopping, you need to know how you will take ownership. If you are shopping for residential property, you will probably buy it using your own name. If you are buying commercial property, you will most likely need an entity to take ownership. This could be an LLC or Corporation.
Fortunately, foreigners can set up an LLC and the process is very simple.
The reason why creditors might want you to take ownership inside an entity is to protect the asset from liability elsewhere in your portfolio. Each LLC is a unique entity and the debts and liabilities in one are shielded from debts and liabilities in another.
So, if you do something silly in one property and a tenant gets hurt and sues, your other assets in separate LLCs are mostly shielded from this lawsuit.
The costs are slightly higher to own and operate a company, but the asset protection is well worth it both for you and for the lender.
Pick a Market
The US is massive and has hundreds of cities to choose from. You’ll need to pick one and focus on it if you want to have any chance of ever picking an actual property to purchase.
There are dozens of factors you might want to consider, but you’ll want to narrow it down to a few big factors first, then keep narrowing it down from there.
At first, you’ll want to consider the following major items:
You want to buy into a metro area and state that have positive population growth. This shows you that people want to live here and will move here from other places
You want to see new businesses opening and moving here from other areas. This shows the state and population have what businesses want – smart, educated, and hardworking employment base.
Generally, you don’t want to buy into a city that derives most of its jobs from one source. Good examples might be mining, oil, tourism, shipping, etc. If the majority of workers are employed in one industry, and the rest of the employment supports that industry, then you are set up for big problems if there is any issue in that industry.
Building Your Team
Once you’ve got all the admin stuff out of the way such as qualifying for a loan and establishing your entity, you’ll want to build a team in the city you will purchase in. Before you start looking for property, you will want to build your team.
You’ve already built some of your team, but there are still others you need to find. You should have already found a mortgage broker/lender, but now you need a good property manager, real estate broker in your target city, insurance agent in the target state, and contractors as well as inspectors.
You’ll need each one at some point and it’s good to build relationships with them before you actually start searching for property and need them. This way you won’t be scrambling around at the last minute.
But, be mindful of their time. You don’t want to take up a ton of their time asking questions when you have no business to offer them yet.
Searching For a Property
It’s finally time to start searching for property. If you’re looking for residential property, your agent will provide you suggested listings or set you up on an automated service that delivers listings to your email.
Commercial real estate is a bit trickier and will require you to know several brokers as well as use a service such as costar or LoopNet. In general, if you are buying commercial real estate, you need to get on the email list of the commercial brokers. So, you’ll need to call them all and ask to be on their distribution list.
Don’t be scared to make offers! Determine the value to you and make an offer based on that. If you are under the asking price, that’s OK. If you are over, that’s OK too.
The key is to make sure you get accurate financial information before making an offer. If possible ask for tax schedules or a trailing 12 month profit and loss statement. Smaller properties often don’t have these details so you’ll have to guess a bit more.
Next, take your numbers and put them into a real estate calculator so you know the cash on cash and overall return on investment. Once you know your returns and offer price, contact your broker and they’ll walk you through the process to making an offer.
Real estate is all about making assumptions then verifying those assumptions through diligence. In other words, it’s about taking risks then mitigating those risks.
What I mean by this is that you don’t have all the information available to you when you are putting together an offer. Sure, you’ve seen the general condition, some tax information, and rent roll/expenses, but you haven’t seen every unit, talked to every maintenance person, know your interest rates, etc.
Once your offer is accepted, you need to go through every line item and verify it’s accuracy. If it’s inaccurate, you need to adjust your calculator with the new information.
Once you’ve adjusted every item, you need to go back and consider if the deal still works for you or not. Don’t be afraid to back out at this point, but don’t get upset over small differences either.
At a minimum, you will want to verify the:
It seems like a lot, but that’s why you’ve built a team. Each one of those people will help you verify a piece of information that will help you make a good buying decision.
One Thing About Banking
To help avoid financial crime, there is a law in The United States called the “know your client” law which requires the bank to know who they are working with. In general, someone at the bank needs to know you in some capacity. This could be with an ID and an in person conversation, or it could be more or less.
Some banks allow you to do everything electronically. They may require you to fax or email copies of your ID or talk to them on the phone to establish that relationship.
Another way to open a bank account and work within the law is to establish a US account with a bank that operates or has a partnership in your home country as well. You can open the bank account in the US but verify your identity while being overseas.
Another way to avoid this hassle is to hire a property manager and just pay the costs of an international wire fee every quarter. They can collect your rents, pay your bills, and wire the profits to you every 3 or 6 months.
They say only Death and Taxes are certainties in life. In other words, the IRS always collects what’s due to it, so don’t try to avoid it. It’s better just to understand the requirements and do it.
Taxes are complicated, and they can be especially complicated with real estate because the tax laws of more than one country might apply. This is because different nations have different tax treaties with the U.S., so it’s really important to consult with a tax expert in your country as well as one in the U.S. to understand everything and make sure you are in compliance.
No treaty allows you to avoid taxes in the US, but some treaties allow you to pay just taxes in the United States. Other treaties require you to pay taxes in both the US and your home country. Additionally, the tax rates may vary depending on your nationality.
So, read the treaties, understand them, and consult with a tax professional or two.
Tax Benefits to Real Estate
In the US, real estate has some of the best tax benefits of all. You can offset the vast majority of your income and often pay little to no taxes for at least 10-15 years.
This is because the U.S. tax code allows deductions for mortgage interest, depreciation, all repairs and maintenance, property taxes, and more.
Often, you can find yourself with a ‘negative income’ on paper even though you collected rent all year long and have a profit. You can carry those ‘losses’ forward to the next year and offset even more profits.
The only catch is the IRS will capture these taxes back when you sell. They’re pretty smart over there at the IRS and know that you’ll defer most profits until sale, so all foreign owners of real estate will have an automatic 10% of the sale price withheld by the IRS until taxes are filed.
Don’t worry, they will refund the difference if you overpaid, but you will also owe any difference if that 10% wasn’t enough to cover your taxes.
Other Ways to Invest in Real Estate
There are a lot of nuances to know and it can seem overwhelming. Nothing we laid out is any more challenging than investing anywhere else in the world (in fact, it’s probably easier in the US than elsewhere). But, if owning your own property is too difficult, there are other ways to have real estate in your portfolio without actually purchasing any physical property.
Real Estate Crowdfunding
Around the year 2014 real estate crowdfunding came alive. Crowdfunding is where you can pool smaller amounts of funds together with other investors to purchase real estate.
In general, you need to have a US based entity with a local bank account. That’s because the deal sponsors don’t want to withhold 10% of the value upon sale to meet the IRS requirements for withholding.
So, create your LLC and set up your bank account and you can invest in real estate via crowdfunding.
ETFs and REITs
Another way is to buy into Exchange Traded Funds or Real Estate Investment Trusts via the stock exchange. These are generally traded on the open market and you’ll need to meet the requirements that all foreign investors in stocks need to meet.
You’ll be buying a fund that invests in real estate without having the purchase the real estate for yourself. You won’t earn as much because of the management fees they charge, but you also won’t have to jump through all the hurdles of buying real estate.
There are few laws about conducting business in the US as a foreigner. As long as your company is set up, you have a bank account, and follow the law, you can do business.
So, you could become a private lender. Basically, instead of buying real estate yourself, you could be the ‘bank’ that lends on the deal. Investors are often looking for short term loans at a high interest rate to fund their deals.
If you know some investors, it may a good option for you.
Don’t Be Intimidated
Real estate investing is a big undertaking regardless if you are a US citizen or a foreign national.
You just need to know the steps, understand the risks, build the right team, and work hard at it. If you do all that you can achieve anything, including buying real estate in the US.