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Is Netflix A Buy? Analysts Continue To Remain Optimistic

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Online streaming giant Netflix is one of the top internet stocks across the globe. Shares of the media company have soared 125% in 2015, 13% in 2016 and 55% in 2017. The stock is already up over 80% in 2017. Shares of Netflix peaked to an all-time high of $423.21 last month and have since declined after it released its Q2 2018 earnings results.

Why Did Netflix Shares Decline Recently?

Though Netflix beat earnings estimates, it reported Q2 revenue below analyst projections. Netflix also added 5.2 million new subscribers in the second quarter, below estimates of 6.2 million in Q2. In the United States alone, Netflix added 700,000 subscribers which were below the estimated figure of 1.2 million.

At the end of Q2, Netflix had 130 million subscribers, an increase of 25% year-over-year compared to 104 million subscribers at end of the second quarter in 2017.

Has User Growth For Netflix Started To Decline?

In the last seven out of the nine quarters, Netflix has been able to beat user forecasts. The last time Netflix reported user subscription below estimates was in Q1 2017 when it added 5 million users, compared to a forecast of 5.2 million. What’s more, Netflix expects to add 5 million subscribers in Q3 including 650,000 in the United States. This indicates an addition of 4.35 million global subscribers.

Netflix has stated that its subscriber base can grow between 60 million and 90 million in the United States, indicating an addition of approximately 30 million subscribers at the high end of its projection. After significant expansion, Netflix now has approximately 57 million domestic subscribers. With this comes the hiccup – it has practically no room to grow subscribers if we take the conservative estimate of 60 million subscribers.

The company is also facing challenges by bigger players with more cash in hand such as Amazon Prime and Amazon Studios. Further, Disney is looking to launch its streaming platform in 2019.

Key Drivers For Netflix

Yes, Netflix’s stock has been negatively impacted post Q2 results. But Netflix’s growth story is far from over. The company expects revenue to grow by 33.6% in Q3 with earnings growth of 134%. Netflix again expects to add 5 million subscribers in Q3.

Netflix can approximately double its subscriber base to 250 million over the next 10 years, given the total available market. Netflix currently has 300 million user profiles across 450 million devices.

There are growth opportunities in emerging markets like India where Netflix has about 5 million subscribers compared to the market leader Hotstar which has 75 million subscribers. The Indian online streaming market is estimated to grow by 35% year-over-year. Netflix has been targeting market share by generating original content.

The first two seasons of Narcos scored massive hits while Sacred Games has also been popular among the Indian audience. Production on the first Arabic series Jinn has reportedly begun. Netflix will be spending around $8 billion in original content for 2018.

Though there are concerns over Netflix, the company’s revenue is still estimated to grow by 35.6% in 2018, 24.8% in 2019 and 21.6% in 2020. Comparatively, its bottom line or earnings is estimated to grow by 116% in 2018, 61.9% in 2019 and at a CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of 62.5% over the next five years.

Does This Provide An Opportunity For Investors To Buy Netflix?

Although Netflix has generated spectacular returns over the last few years, potential investors might be wary about entering at current levels. However, the recent stock decline post Netflix’s quarterly results indicate that the stock is trading at a discount of over 10% to average analyst price targets of $377.60.

Out of the 40 analysts tracking Netflix, 60% of analysts (or 24 analysts) recommend a “buy” while 35% recommend a “hold” and only 5% recommend to “sell” the stock. Netflix has a high 12-month price target estimate of $503.

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Early Uber Investor: ‘I’m Happy With Uber’s Poor IPO’

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Lance Armstrong may not have gotten his $3B on his $100K investment, but his $100K still got a proper HGH/steroid boost.

And despite the rough outing, early investor Mitchell Green says he’s happy with the current IPO price—despite falling WAY south of its initially rumored $120B level.

And no, it’s not the Mitch Green, the one who got into a street fight with Mike Tyson.

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Uber rich Mitch Green looks like this:

Image result for mitchell green lead edge

Anyway. Green says he’s happy with the current pricing. Check out the video to see why.

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‘Going Public’: IPO, Explained

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It’s a buzzword we hear constantly—and one that’s sure to generate tons of headlines. Alibaba had the largest in history (before its billionaire founder decided he wanted to quit to be a grade school teacher.)

Lyft IPO’d recently also, beating arch rival Uber to the proverbial punch.

Other than being a buzzword and a big story, what exactly is an IPO?! Well, let’s break it down.

What is an IPO?!

In technical terms, an Initial Public Offering (IPO) is the first sale of stock issued by a company to the public. In other words, this is the moment when a private company goes “public” by offering its shares for sale to the public.

So when a company does go public, the valuation usually spikes dramatically—and the company can now use the funds from the sale of shares to feed the business. It’s a fabulous funding source for a company.

Before that, what is a company?

Prior to going public, a company is a privately-owned firm. Obviously. The company initially attracts investments or seed capital from the co-founder, friends, and families.

Business investors such as venture capitalists, private equity companies and angel investors pump in money if they are optimistic about long-term prospects and sustainability of the company.

On the flip side of things, you sometimes have companies that decide to go “private,” like Elon Musk said he wanted to do with Tesla. 

Why does a company opt for an IPO?

The biggest advantage for a publicly listed company is access to capital. This capital can be used to purchase machinery, fund research and development or pay off any existing debt.

The firm will then be listed on a public exchange and provides an exit route for business investors and founders.

When Facebook went public, Mark Zuckerberg sold 30M shares worth $1.1B. An IPO is the most common way for investors and VCs to make a significant return on their investment. In fact, it’s considered the ultimate exit for founders.

How much capital do the companies get?

Let’s run down the list.

Alibaba [BABA] raised $25B in an IPO back in Sept. 2014. Facebook [FB] raised $16B in May 2012. Visa [V] raised $7.9B in March 2008.

Top tech unicorns such as Uber, Slack, and Airbnb are on course to file for an IPO over the next 18 months.

The company that is looking to go public hires an investment bank to underwriting the IPO process. Investment banks can either work together or individually in this process.

What do the investment bankers do?

In other words, all the boring admin stuff. In exchange for this, they collect a nice fat fee, usually anywhere from 4-7% of gross proceeds.

Those involved hold several meetings to finalize the IPO process and determine the timing of the filing. Once this is wrapped up, they shift to performing the due diligence to ensure the company’s registration statements are accurate.

The due diligence tasks include market due diligence, legal and IP due diligence, financial and tax due diligence. At the end of this process, the companies then file for an S-1 Registration Statement.

The S-1 is usually what tips off the press and the public that a company is about to go, well, public.

And what’s the S-1?

The S-1 statement includes information about the companies’ historical financial statements, company overview, risk factors, and other critical data.

A pre-IPO analyst meeting is then held post the S-1 Registration Statement to educate analysts and bankers about the company.

Confused yet?

A preliminary prospectus can also be drafted at this stage. The underwriting investment bank conducts pre-marketing to determine the interest of institutional investors and the price they are willing to pay per share.

Now you’re ready to go public

The price range for an IPO is set and the S-1 Registration Statement is amended with the price range.  The company’s management organizes road shows and marketing activities to generate interest for the upcoming IPO.

Based on investor interest, the price range per share can be revised. The investors will apply for company shares and this application window is open for generally 2-4 days. The company shares can be oversubscribed or undersubscribed.

Once the IPO is priced, the investment banks will allocate shares to investors where the stock will now be available for trading in the secondary market.

At this point, a company is now ready to go public. Here’s how people usually look when that happens.

Image result for snap IPO

SNAP executives during happier days.

Congrats. You’re now an IPO expert.

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[VIDEO] Penny Stocks, Explained

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Penny stocks are equity investments that are traded outside major exchanges. These stocks are traded at low prices and have a small market cap. As penny stocks are illiquid and highly speculative, they carry a high risk of investment.

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (or SEC) defines penny stocks as shares with a value of less than $5. Typically, a penny stock is traded over the counter or by using pink sheets.

Despite the high risks of investment, penny stocks can be a lucrative form of investment because of its low price and higher prospects of return.

Suitable for investors with a high-risk tolerance

Investing in equity markets is risky, particularly because it’s driven by price fluctuations and volatility. Investors in penny stocks will generally have a higher threshold of risk tolerance. Penny stocks are far more volatile than blue-chip stocks.

Investors hence need to take precautions while investing in penny stocks. They need to have a stop-loss order prior to entering into a trade. This will minimize the amount of downside potential in case the markets move in the opposite direction.

Penny stocks also provide an opportunity for significant companies. These companies are generally high-growth ones but with limited cash resources.

Why are penny stocks attractive to the average retail investor?

Generally, the average retail investor associates a low price stock as a bargain. But this cannot be farther from the truth. A stock can be overvalued at $1 and can be undervalued at $250.

The average investor fails to understand this due to limited investing knowledge. Penny stocks are trading at lower values for a reason. They might experience a bull run resulting in a significant price appreciation but can also come crashing down in no time. It is far easier to manipulate penny stocks.

The “Caveat Emptor” principle should be applied when investing in penny stocks. Sure, there are success stories even for penny stock investors, but is worth the risk?

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